Trump-Kim reset after midterm blow? Why North Korea may hold the cards

Stung by midterm setback, Trump may seek breakthrough with North Korea

US President Donald Trump could turn his attention to North Korea in search of foreign policy victories after Republicans suffered a major setback in the midterm elections, but any attempt to revive negotiations with leader Kim Jong Un could put Washington at odds with its closest Asian allies, according to a Reuters report.With the wars in Ukraine and Iran yet to produce diplomatic breakthroughs, analysts and officials in Asia believe Trump may increasingly look towards the region to build his foreign policy legacy during the final two years of his presidency.Kim, with whom Trump has repeatedly expressed an eagerness to restart dialogue, could emerge as a central figure in that effort. However, analysts say Pyongyang has little reason to return to the negotiating table at present, particularly as its military capabilities and strategic partnerships have expanded.“Trump is likely to devote significant effort to achieving foreign policy successes, especially if he faces greater constraints on the domestic front,” said Ban Kil-joo, an international relations professor at the Korea National Diplomatic Academy in Seoul.“Given Trump would want a successor to win in 2028, there is a strong possibility that engagement with North Korea would be part of that agenda,” he said.Responding to questions about Trump’s plans for diplomacy with Pyongyang, the White House said the president had restored American strength on the global stage and strengthened ties with world leaders.“His foreign policy decisions have never been motivated by politics,” White House spokeswoman Anna Kelly told Reuters.“The commander-in-chief will always act in the best interest of the American people and our national security.”Trump met Kim three times during his first presidential term, following an exchange of hostile rhetoric between the two leaders that had raised fears of military confrontation.However, their 2019 summit ended without an agreement after both sides failed to reach a deal on North Korea’s nuclear weapons programme and sanctions relief.Seven years later, the negotiating landscape has changed considerably. North Korea has significantly expanded its nuclear and missile arsenal, while its relations with Russia and China have strengthened, leaving Kim with fewer incentives to strike a deal with Washington.That could, in turn, increase pressure on Trump to offer more substantial concessions to bring Pyongyang back to negotiations.

Trump calls Kim ‘great guy’

Trump has repeatedly spoken positively about his relationship with the North Korean leader, describing Kim as a “great guy” and saying the two “get along very well”.Despite Trump’s interest in restarting engagement, US and South Korean officials see diminishing chances of a meeting this year. Washington has received no response from Pyongyang ahead of a regional summit in China this month, where the two leaders could potentially have met.Kim’s influential sister, Kim Yo Jong, has maintained that dialogue remains a possible route to peace but said Pyongyang sees no reason to negotiate at present. She has also criticised what she called Washington’s “hostile policy”.Her remarks came as she denied US accusations that North Korea had stolen more than $6 billion in virtual assets from Binance last week.Kim Jong Un has previously indicated that he could consider talks if Washington stopped insisting that North Korea abandon its nuclear weapons programme. However, such a shift in US policy would face opposition from regional allies South Korea and Japan.“A summit that shelves denuclearisation would undermine deterrence and create policy friction among Washington, Seoul and Tokyo,” said Leif-Eric Easley, professor of international studies at Ewha Womans University in Seoul.Officials in Tokyo and Seoul are also concerned that Trump could negotiate directly with Kim, potentially with the tacit approval of Beijing and Moscow, without adequately consulting regional allies, a senior Japanese official told Reuters on condition of anonymity.“(Japanese officials) are concerned about the lengths he will go to get a summit with North Korea’s Kim Jong Un, such as dropping the issue of denuclearisation.”

‘Biggest change since World War Two’

Trump has referred to North Korea as a nuclear power, although the US and its regional allies have refused to formally recognise that status. Pyongyang is believed to have built dozens of nuclear warheads and accumulated a substantial stockpile of fissile material.Any move by Washington to accept North Korea’s nuclear status as part of a diplomatic agreement could fundamentally alter the security landscape in Asia.“If US-North Korea talks lead Washington to accept North Korea’s nuclear status, the security environment in Asia would change dramatically,” said Kazuhiro Maeshima, a professor at Sophia University in Japan.“The biggest change since World War Two could occur in the remaining two years of the Trump administration. It is a serious situation.”North Korea’s military capabilities have also advanced significantly since the 2018-2019 summits. Its arsenal now includes more nuclear weapons and missiles, hypersonic glide vehicles, a growing fleet of modern warships and submarines, and improved drone capabilities.Against this backdrop, bringing Kim back to the negotiating table could require Trump to offer more than limited sanctions relief.However, any major concessions could face resistance from a Democratic-controlled Congress, while Trump’s shrinking time in office could further complicate negotiations, said Moon Chung-in, a professor at Yonsei University in Seoul who previously served as a presidential adviser on national security.Moon said Kim would also assess whether Trump had enough political leverage to deliver on any commitments.“And what is important is North Korea’s perception and calculation; if North Korea thinks that Trump has entered a lame-duck period and he cannot get the support from Congress… there’s no reason for Kim Jong Un to come to dialogue,” he said.Stephen Biegun, a former US deputy secretary of state who led Washington’s negotiations with North Korea during Trump’s first term, also sees limited incentives for Pyongyang to engage at present.“The North Koreans, I think, have very little upside to a meeting like this right now, and potentially some downside.”