The Texas test: Latino voters could make or break Trump’s midterms

Latino voters are a key US midterm bloc, with their choices in Texas and beyond set to decide close races and test whether Trump’s 2024 gains hold.

Latino voters are emerging as one of the most closely watched constituencies in the US midterm elections, with their choices potentially influencing the outcome of key races in Texas and offering a broader indication of how US president Donald Trump’s 2024 gains among Hispanic voters are holding up.In Texas, where Latinos account for nearly a third of the eligible electorate, a shift in their support could have consequences for the closely contested Senate and gubernatorial races, as well as several competitive House districts.The political significance extends beyond Texas. Competitive congressional districts in California, Arizona, Florida and Pennsylvania also have substantial Latino populations, meaning even modest changes in voting preferences could affect the balance of power in the House of Representatives. The results could also help establish whether the Republican gains among Latino voters in 2024 represented a lasting political shift or a temporary movement driven by the issues and candidates of that election.

Why the Latino vote matters in Texas

Texas has nearly 6.3 million eligible Latino voters, accounting for about 31.7% of the state’s eligible electorate, according to the UCLA Latino Policy and Politics Institute.Their numbers were influential in 2024, when Trump won approximately 55% of Hispanic voters in Texas, according to exit polls. He also carried several South Texas counties that had voted Democratic in 2020.

Reuters reported on October 12 that Democrats need a net gain of four seats to take control.

Those shifts helped Republicans redraw the state’s political map with greater confidence after the 2024 election. Texas Republicans’ mid-decade redistricting push, carried out at Trump’s urging, sought to improve their prospects in several congressional districts where the president had performed strongly. But a change in Latino voting preferences could complicate that strategy.The region is already central to several competitive House contests. Republican Rep Monica De La Cruz is facing Democrat Bobby Pulido, while Democratic Rep Vicente Gonzalez is running against Republican Eric Flores. The races are being fought in districts where Latino voters form an important part of the electorate.

What could bring Latino voters back towards Democrats?

Economic concerns and immigration enforcement are emerging as key issues shaping the vote, though strategists disagree on which matters more.According to CBS News, Trump’s approval rating among Latinos stood at 24% in early October. Among those who voted for him in 2024, approval had fallen to 57%, from 93% in February 2025. An October CBS poll also found that 51% of Latino voters planned to support a Democratic House candidate, compared with 24% for a Republican.Democratic strategist Chuck Rocha attributed the discontent largely to rising prices, fuel costs and affordability, with immigration enforcement adding to concerns in South Texas. He described Latino voters as increasingly willing to move between parties, calling the shift “dealignment” rather than a permanent realignment.Texas Democratic Rep Joaquin Castro, however, sees immigration enforcement as the bigger factor. He told CBS News that ICE operations had directly affected Latino communities, particularly Hispanic men, who felt they were being treated collectively as criminals.“I think it’s mostly because of ICE and how they have targeted the Latino community in Texas and across the country,” Castro said.Latino voters are not a politically uniform group; their priorities vary across rural and urban communities, age groups, gender and occupation.

The polling picture — and its limits

Polling suggests Democrats have an opening in the state’s major contests. An October CBS News poll found that six in 10 Hispanic voters planned to support Democrat James Talarico over Republican Ken Paxton in the Senate race. Latino voters also favoured Democratic gubernatorial candidate Gina Hinojosa over incumbent Republican Gov Greg Abbott by a similar margin.A University of Houston Hobby School survey found Talarico leading Paxton among Latino voters statewide, 52% to 41%. But the breakdown by geography showed a more complicated picture: rural Latino voters favoured Paxton, 56% to 24%, while urban Latino voters backed Hinojosa over Abbott, 58% to 41%.Decision Desk HQ’s average of Hispanic polling data also showed Talarico leading Paxton by more than 20 percentage points among Latino voters, a swing of roughly 30 points towards Democrats compared with Trump’s performance among the group in 2024.Republicans have questioned whether the apparent shift will translate into votes. Republicans argue that Democrats had yet to persuade many Latino men, particularly those working in energy, law enforcement and federal agencies, that the party’s economic and immigration policies would serve their interests.They also point to the role of religion and conservative social views among some Hispanic voters, arguing that Republicans had built a higher baseline of support over the past decade.

Turnout could be as important as preference

The number of Latino voters who turn out could prove as important as which candidates they support.Nearly 150,000 voters cast early ballots in Hidalgo and Cameron counties during the first week of voting, a 63% increase over the comparable period in the 2022 midterms, according to figures reported to the Texas Secretary of State’s office. The rise points to greater participation in heavily Hispanic South Texas, but does not indicate which party those voters favour.The region has also shown a history of ticket-splitting. In 2024, Trump carried Hidalgo County even as Democratic House candidates Michelle Vallejo and Vicente Gonzalez won majorities there, suggesting voters may back different parties in statewide and congressional contests.An analysis by Equis cautioned against treating primary turnout as a reliable predictor of general-election results, particularly in heavily Latino counties where Democratic primaries can decide some local races. It found that Talarico won 54% of the two-way vote in majority-Latino precincts in major urban counties, 67% in the Rio Grande Valley and 63% in the Upper Rio Grande region near El Paso during the Democratic Senate primary. But the group warned that these figures cannot establish how the same voters will behave in the midterms.

Campaigns are competing for voters who cannot be taken for granted

Democrats have invested more heavily in Latino outreach this cycle, moving beyond the practice of translating English-language campaign advertisements into Spanish only in the final weeks of an election. Campaigns have sought to reach voters through Spanish-language programming, social media influencers and messengers with established community connections.Talarico’s campaign spent $800,000 on World Cup advertising, including Spanish-language spots, while Hinojosa’s campaign placed an advertisement during a boxing match featuring Mexican star Canelo Álvarez.Republicans, meanwhile, are seeking to retain the support they gained in 2024 by emphasising the economy, border security, faith and family values. Trump has defended his record with Hispanic voters, pointing to falling poverty rates among Hispanic Americans and arguing that Democratic policies would threaten economic growth and border security.

What the result could mean beyond Texas

The Texas vote will be watched well beyond the state’s borders because it could offer an indication of whether Latino voters are continuing to move between the parties rather than settling into a durable political alignment.A Democratic recovery among Latino voters could complicate Republican efforts to hold competitive House districts in states such as California, Arizona, Florida and Pennsylvania, where sizable Latino electorates can influence close races. It could also give Democrats a template for reaching voters who supported Trump in 2024 but have since become dissatisfied with his administration.But a strong Democratic performance in Texas would not, by itself, establish that Latino voters have permanently shifted back towards the party.For Republicans, retaining the support they won in 2024 will depend on whether their candidates can address voters’ concerns about prices, immigration enforcement and the economy. For Democrats, the task is to convert dissatisfaction into sustained support while persuading voters who remain sceptical of the party.For now, Texas is a test of how much either party can rely on an electorate that has shown it is willing to move.