Will Raúl Castro’s indictment over 1996 shooting down of civilian planes push US and Cuba closer to war?

Raúl Castro’s indictment by US over the 1996 shooting down of civilian planes has raised tensions between Washington and Havana, with some analysts warning the move could push the two Cold War rivals closer to open conflict.The charges against the 94-year-old former Cuban president were announced this week in Miami, where Cuban exile groups welcomed the decision as long-awaited justice for the deaths of four Cuban Americans killed when Cuban fighter jets shot down two planes operated by Brothers to the Rescue in 1996.But in Cuba, Raúl Castro is still viewed by supporters as one of the main symbols of the communist revolution founded alongside his revolutionary brother Fidel Castro.“He is the living embodiment of the revolution,” former US diplomat Ricardo Zúñiga told CNN.Zúñiga was involved in secret negotiations that restored diplomatic ties between the US and Cuba during the Obama administration. He warned that the indictment could close off communication between the two governments and make tensions even more dangerous.“Eventually the frustration on both sides could lead to conflict simply because Washington shuts down communication with the Cuban government through this indictment,” he said.The charges come at a time when Cuba is already facing one of its worst economic and humanitarian crises in decades. Fuel shortages, food scarcity and long power cuts have fuelled growing frustration across the island, while new US sanctions and restrictions have increased pressure on Havana.US President Donald Trump has criticised Cuba’s government in recent months while also suggesting he remains open to a possible deal.“I can (make a deal) whether you change the regime or not. It has been a rough regime and they killed a lot of people,” Trump said on Tuesday.The POTUS added: “But it’s a country that really needs help. They can’t turn on the lights, they can’t eat. We don’t want to see that.”At the same time, secretary of state Marco Rubio, a Cuban-American and longtime critic of the Castro family, has taken a much harder line. He thinks Cuba’s current leadership should be removed from power.The indictment has encouraged anti-Castro groups in Miami, many of whom believe Cuba’s communist government is weakening and could eventually collapse under pressure.“The time of the Castros is over,” Cuban-American Congresswoman Maria Elvira Salazar said on X.For Cuban exile communities, the 1996 shootdown remains one of the most painful chapters in US-Cuba relations. The Brothers to the Rescue aircraft had been flying missions linked to Cuban refugees and had previously dropped anti-government leaflets over Havana. Cuban authorities insisted at the time that the planes violated Cuban airspace and defended the attack as an act of national sovereignty.Now, the indictment could create conditions for a direct confrontation if the US attempts to pursue Castro more aggressively. The charges could theoretically provide a legal basis for extradition efforts or further action against senior Cuban officials.Cuban President Miguel Díaz-Canel has responded defiantly, accusing Washington of trying to force political change on Cuba. Cuba’s military has increased exercises across the country while state messaging has warned citizens to prepare for possible aggression, reports CNNDíaz-Canel has also warned that “a blood bath” would await any invading force.Analysts say any military confrontation would carry huge risks despite Cuba’s weaker military position. Unlike Venezuela, where the US recently increased pressure on Nicolás Maduro’s government, Cuba’s political and military leadership remains tied to the revolutionary system built by Fidel and Raúl Castro over decades.Even though he officially stepped down from power years ago, Raúl Castro still holds enormous symbolic influence inside Cuba. He is regularly referred to as the leader of the revolution, and senior officials continue to consult him on major decisions.Zúñiga warned that isolating Cuba’s leadership entirely could make the situation more volatile rather than less.“On the Cuban side by shutting down communication they may fail to appreciate that the next stage here from the US side could be some kind of assault,” he said.He added: “But there isn’t much to destroy that isn’t already decrepit.”